Kahn biography

American futurist (1922–1983)

For the registrar, see Herman Kahn (archivist).

Herman Kahn (February 15, 1922 – July 7, 1983) was an English physicist and a founding partaker of the Hudson Institute, presumed as one of the unsurpassed futurists of the latter zone of the twentieth century.

Operate originally came to prominence on account of a military strategist and systems theorist while employed at decency RAND Corporation. He analyzed glory likely consequences of nuclear fighting and recommended ways to swelling survivability during the Cold Battle. Kahn posited the idea bring into play a "winnable" nuclear exchange amuse his 1960 book On Thermonuclear War for which he was one of the historical inspirations for the title character boss Stanley Kubrick's classic black farce film satire Dr.

Strangelove.^[1] Look his commentary for Fail Safe, director Sidney Lumet remarked turn the Professor Groeteschele character assessment also based on Herman Kahn.^[2] Kahn's theories contributed to blue blood the gentry development of the nuclear thorough knowledge of the United States.

Early life and education

Kahn was aboriginal in Bayonne, New Jersey, chimp one of three sons craving Yetta (née Koslowsky) and Ibrahim Kahn, a tailor.^[3] His parents were Jewish immigrants from Poland.^[3] He was raised in picture Bronx, then in Los Angeles following his parents' divorce give back 1932.^[4] Raised Jewish, he afterward identified as an atheist.^[5] Architect graduated from Fairfax High College in 1940 and enlisted intimate the United States Army lecture in May 1943, serving during picture Burma campaign in World Clash II in a non-combat sever connections as a telephone lineman.^[6] Unquestionable received a Bachelor of Discipline at UCLA and briefly false Caltech to pursue a degree before dropping out with a-one Master of Science due dealings financial constraints.^[7] He joined decency RAND Corporation as a mathematician after being recruited by lookalike physicist Samuel Cohen.^[8]

Cold War theories

Kahn's major contributions were the many strategies he developed during dignity Cold War to contemplate "the unthinkable" – namely, nuclear warfare – by using applications of game theory.

Kahn bash often cited (with Pierre Wack) as a father of story line planning.^[9]

Kahn argued for deterrence lecture believed that if the State Union believed that the Mutual States had a second punch capability then it would need no invitation greater deterrence, which he wrote in his paper titled "The Nature and Feasibility of Armed conflict and Deterrence".^[10]

The bases of diadem work were systems theory station game theory as applied hype economics and military strategy.

Architect argued that for deterrence reverse succeed, the Soviet Union difficult to be convinced that birth United States had second-strike capacity in order to leave glory Politburo in no doubt lose concentration even a perfectly coordinated ponderous consequential attack would guarantee a amplitude of retaliation that would take another road them devastated as well:

At the minimum, an adequate withdraw for the United States be compelled provide an objective basis means a Soviet calculation that would persuade them that, no argument how skillful or ingenious they were, an attack on rendering United States would lead make sure of a very high risk on condition that not certainty of large-scale breaking up to Soviet civil society have a word with military forces.^[11]

In 1962, Kahn obtainable a 16-step escalation ladder.

Emergency 1965 he had developed that into a 44-step ladder.^[12]

1. Ostensible Crisis
2. Political, Economic and Diplomatic Gestures
3. Solemn mushroom Formal Declarations
4. Hardening of Positions – Confrontation of Wills
5. Show of Force
6. Significant Mobilization
7. "Legal" Harassment – Retortions
8. Harassing Experience of Violence
9. Dramatic Military Confrontations
10. Provocative Break off of Diplomatic Relations
11. Super-Ready Status
12. Large Conventional War (or Actions)
13. Large Compose Escalation
14. Declaration of Limited Conventional War
15. Barely Nuclear War
16. Nuclear "Ultimatums"
17. Limited Evacuations (20%)
18. Spectacular Show or Demonstration of Force
19. "Justifiable" Counterforce Attack
20. "Peaceful" World-Wide Embargo recovered Blockade
21. Local Nuclear War – Exemplary
22. Declaration of Limited Nuclear War
23. Local Nuclearpowered War – Military
24. Unusual, Provocative extra Significant Countermeasures
25. Evacuation (70%)
26. Demonstration Attack steamy Zone of Interior
27. Exemplary Attack untruthful Military
28. Exemplary Attacks Against Property
29. Exemplary Attacks on Population
30. Complete Evacuation (95%)
31. Reciprocal Reprisals
32. Formal Declaration of "General" War
33. Slow-Motion Counter-"Property" War
34. Slow-Motion Counterforce War
35. Constrained Force-Reduction Salvo
36. Constrained Disarming Attack
37. Counterforce-with-Avoidance Attack
38. Unmodified Counterforce Attack
39. Slow-Motion Countercity war
40. Countervalue Salvo
41. Augmented Disarming Attack
42. Civilian Devastation Attack
43. Controlled General War
44. Spasm/Insensate War

Hudson Institute

In 1961, Kahn, Max Chorister and Oscar Ruebhausen founded high-mindedness Hudson Institute,^[13] a think boiler initially located in Croton-on-Hudson, Unusual York, where Kahn was days at the time.

He recruited sociologist Daniel Bell, political academic Raymond Aron and novelist Ralph Ellison (author of the 1952 classic Invisible Man).

The Best 2000

In 1967, Herman Kahn additional Anthony J. Wiener published The Year 2000: A Framework broach Speculation on the Next Xxxiii Years, which included contributions diverge staff members of the Naturalist Institute and an introduction be oblivious to Daniel Bell.

Table XVIII solution the document^[14] contains a listing called "One Hundred Technical Innovations Very Likely in the Clutch Third of the Twentieth Century". The first ten predictions were:

1. Multiple applications of lasers
2. Extreme high-strength structural materials
3. New or improved superperformance fabrics
4. New or improved materials symbolize equipment and appliances
5. New airborne vehicles (ground-effect vehicles, giant or ultrasonic jets, VTOL, STOL)
6. Extensive commercial applications of shaped-charge explosives
7. More reliable presentday longer-range weather forecasting
8. Extensive and/or focused expansion of tropical agriculture service forestry
9. New sources of power espousal fixed installations
10. New sources of spirit for ground transportation

Later years

In Kahn's view, capitalism and technology spoken for nearly boundless potential for make one`s way, while the colonization of period lay in the near, very different from the distant, future.^[15] Kahn's 1976 book The Next 200 Years, written with William Brown arena Leon Martel, presented an positive scenario of economic conditions put in the bank the year 2176.

He besides wrote a number of books extrapolating the future of decency American, Japanese and Australian economies and several works on systems theory, including the well-received 1957 monograph Techniques of System Analysis.^[16]

In 1970, Kahn published the volume The Emerging Japanese Superstate bolster which he claimed that Nippon would play a large acquit yourself in the world equal do good to the Soviet Union and justness United States.^[17] In the volume, he claimed that Japan would pursue obtaining nuclear weapons beam that it would pass description United States in per-capita earnings by 1990, and likely equivalent it in gross national creation by 2000.^[17] During the mid-1970s, when South Korea's GDP cosset capita was one of excellence lowest in the world, Architect predicted that the country would become one of the above 10 most powerful countries rephrase the world by the origin 2000.^[18]

In his last year, 1983, Kahn wrote approvingly of Ronald Reagan's political agenda in The Coming Boom: Economic, Political, bear Social and bluntly derided Jonathan Schell's claims about the blanket effects of nuclear war.

Artifice July 7 that year, sharp-tasting died of a stroke, very great 61.^[19]

Personal life

His wife was Rosalie "Jane" Kahn. He and Jane had two children, David beam Debbie.

Cultural influence

Along with Can von Neumann, Edward Teller status Wernher von Braun, Kahn was an inspiration for the monogram "Dr.

Strangelove" in the eponymic film by Stanley Kubrick on the rampage in 1964.^{[1][failed verification][20]} After Filmmaker read Kahn's book On Thermonuclear War, he began a mail with him which led helter-skelter face-to-face discussions between Kubrick dominant Kahn.^[21] In the film, Dr.

Strangelove refers to a tone on the Doomsday Machine do without the "BLAND Corporation". Kahn gave Kubrick the idea for birth "Doomsday Machine", a device which would immediately cause the threaten of the entire planet bind the event of a atomic attack. Both the name roost the concept of the persuasion are drawn from the words of On Thermonuclear War.^[22] Gladiator Menand observes, "In Kahn’s hard-cover, the Doomsday Machine is plug up example of the sort come close to deterrent that appeals to ethics military mind but that research paper dangerously destabilizing.

Since nations lookout not suicidal, its only plug is to threaten."^[22]

Kahn also emotional the character of Professor Groeteschele (Walter Matthau) in the 1964 film Fail Safe.^[23]

Publications

Outside physics become more intense statistics, works written by Architect include:

• 1960.

  On Thermonuclear War. Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-313-20060-2

• 1962. Thinking about the Unthinkable. Horizon Press.
• 1965. On Escalation: Metaphors and Scenarios. Praeger. ISBN 1-41283004-4
• 1967. The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation dimness the Next Thirty-Three Years.

  MacMillan. ISBN 0-02-560440-6. With Anthony Wiener.

• 1968. Can We Win in Viet Nam? Praeger. Kahn with four block out authors: Gastil, Raymond D.; Pfaff, William; Stillman, Edmund; Armbruster, Manage E.
• 1970. The Emerging Japanese Superstate: Challenge and Response. Prentice Portico.

  ISBN 0-13-274670-0

• 1971. The Japanese Challenge: Justness Success and Failure of Poor Success. Morrow; Andre Deutsch. ISBN 0-688-08710-8
• 1972. Things to Come: Thinking tightness the Seventies and Eighties. MacMillan. ISBN 0-02-560470-8. With B. Bruce-Briggs.
• 1973. Herman Kahnsciousness: the Megaton Ideas cut into the One-Man Think Tank.

  Unusual American Library. Selected and dele b extract by Jerome Agel.

• 1974. The Forward-looking of the Corporation. Mason & Lipscomb. ISBN 0-88405-009-2
• 1976. The Next Cardinal Years: A Scenario for U.s.a. and the World. Morrow. ISBN 0-688-08029-4
• 1979. World Economic Development: 1979 endure Beyond.

  William Morrow; Croom Wheel. ISBN 0-688-03479-9. With Hollender, Jeffrey, captivated Hollender, John A.

• 1981. Will She Be Right? The Future publicize Australia. University of Queensland Bear on. ISBN 0-7022-1569-4. With Thomas Pepper.
• 1983. The Coming Boom: Economic, Political, professor Social.

  Simon & Schuster; Settler. ISBN 0-671-49265-9

• 1984. Thinking about the Undreamed of in the 1980s. New York: Simon and Schuster. ISBN 0-671-47544-4
• The Character and Feasibility of War, Elimination, and Arms Control (Central 1 war monograph series), (Hudson Institute)
• A Slightly Optimistic World Context financial assistance 1975–2000 (Hudson Institute)
• Social Limits all over Growth: "Creeping Stagnation" vs.

  "Natural and Inevitable" (HPS paper)

• A Newfound Kind of Class Struggle invite the United States? (Corporate World Program. Research memorandum)

Works published preschooler the RAND Corporation involving Kahn:

• The nature and feasibility advance war and deterrence, RAND Dark paper P-1888-RC, 1960
• Some specific suggestions for achieving early non-military collection capabilities and initiating long-range programs, RAND Corporation research memorandum RM-2206-RC, 1958
• (team led by Herman Kahn) Report on a study spick and span Non-Military Defense, RAND Corporation resonance R-322-RC, 1958
• Herman Kahn and Irwin Mann, War Gaming, RAND Closetogether paper P-1167, 1957
• Herman Kahn stall Irwin Mann, Ten common pitfalls, RAND research memorandum RM-1937-PR, 1957
• Herman Kahn, Stochastic (Monte Carlo) decrease analysis, Santa, Monica, Calif., Service Corp., 1949

See also

Notes

Further reading

• Barry Bruce-Briggs, Supergenius: The mega-worlds of Herman Kahn, North American Policy Press
• Samuel Orderly. Cohen, Fuck You Mr. President: Confessions of the Father position the Neutron Bomb", 2006
• Daniel Ellsberg, The Doomsday Machine, Confessions have available a Nuclear War Planner, Bloomsbury Press, 2017
• Sharon Ghamari-Tabrizi, The Earths of Herman Kahn: The Unconscious Science of Thermonuclear War, Philanthropist University Press, ISBN 0-674-01714-5 [reviewed preschooler Christopher Coker in the Times Literary Supplement], nº 5332, June 10, 2005, p. 19.
• Fred Kaplan, The Wizards of Armageddon, Stanford 1 Age Series, ISBN 0-8047-1884-9
• Kate Lenkowsky, The Herman Kahn Center of class Hudson Institute, Hudson Institute
• Susan Lindee, Science as Comic Metaphysics, Science 309: 383–384, 2005.
• Herbert I.

  Writer, foreword by Herman Kahn, Why Are They Lying to Rustle up Children (Against the doomsayer futurists), ISBN 0-9673514-2-1

• Louis Menand, Fat Man: Bandleader Kahn and the Nuclear Age, in The New Yorker, June 27, 2005.
• Claus Pias, "Hermann Designer – Szenarien für den Kalten Krieg", Zurich: Diaphanes 2009, ISBN 978-3-935300-90-2
• Innes Thacker, Ideological Control and prestige Depoliticisation of Language, in Daring, Christine (ed.), Cencrastus No.

  2, Spring 1980, pp. 30–33, ISSN 0264-0856

External links